There come a time in everyone’s life where we need to decide to say “Fuck it” and just say what’s on our mind…
With the current world events many people are realising a few things:
- Misinformation is rife
- People believe everything they read
- People have no idea how to research
- The general public don’t understand maths, science, or anything of value
This has lead to my total loss of respect from many people; My family, some friends and most of the people I follow on Facebook (and literally everyone on Facebook groups)
All of the misinformation travelling around always ignore one major thing; Exponential growth.
Instead of explaining it here is a video that explains how it works:
Right so let’s do some maths, When you have exponential growth within a population (2 becomes 4, then 8, then 16, 32 and so on) and you have a multiplication every 5 days (So this is an infection rate that is consistent with COVID-19) then every 5 days the number of people that are infected are DOUBLED. Then you take 1% of those people and kill them. So scenario: Right now in south africa we have around 500 deaths.
That’s really low right? Let’s lift the lock-down tomorrow, like everyone wants right?
We take 12,000 total infected and lets’ be nice and remove the recovered 5000 people, 7000 active infections, Lock-down gets lifted on Friday 15 May.
Wednesday 20 May we have 14 000 infections (Already more than the TOTAL infected since February) with a 2% death rate: 280 Deaths
Monday 25 May: 28 000 infections. 560 Deaths
Saturday 30 May: 36 000 infections. 1 120 Deaths
By 19 June: 576 000 infections. 11 520 Deaths
In just over a month we have half a million infections. Let’s keep going
By 14 July: 18 432 000 infections. 368 640 Deaths
19 July: 36 864 000 infections. 737 280 Deaths
We’re now passing the half the country population mark, at this point it’s likely that people are either getting reinfected or are dying from other causes
24 July: 73 728 000 infections. 1 474 560 Deaths
At this point the maths exceeds the population of the country, this is unlikely to happen as the infection rates begin to slow at the halfway point (This is just due to fear, overlap of people healing and those just getting through lucky)
People are advocating for the release of South Africans, but that’s also a death sentence to 15% of the population.
It’s also worth noting 2 things here: The growth is exponential however it is not truly accurate in terms of population, this is based on everyone in the country being in the same room and the same distance from each other. The other is that Deaths climb more rapidly when there is no medical care (when hospitals are full) and it is closer to 15% death rate, assuming that the hospitals fill by the 100 000 Infected mark the numbers get a lot more grim, with the virus ending closer to 11 MILLION people dying from this disease.
RagingNiceGuy 